Where 2026 Retail Growth Is Actually Happening

The News

Telsey Advisory Group, cited in ICSC's 2026 outlook, projects store openings excluding restaurants will grow 1.4 percent in 2026, up from 0.7 percent in 2025. Including restaurants the figure climbs to 1.8 percent. The composition of that growth matters more than the headline number.

Off-price, beauty, and discount retailers are projected to lead. Brands actively expanding include H-E-B, Aldi, Michaels, and Walmart. Grocery in particular is showing concentrated activity, with 52 new grocery stores projected across Dallas-Fort Worth between 2025 and 2027 according to ICSC reporting.

Why the Category Mix Matters

Each of the three leading categories has a distinct operational profile, and the mix affects which capabilities your store development team needs to scale.

Off-price (TJX, Ross, Burlington, and similar) tends to take existing big-box footprints with relatively light fit-out. Speed to open is the priority and capital intensity per location is moderate. Beauty (Sephora, Ulta, smaller specialty) emphasizes brand-standard execution and high-touch finishes. Capital per square foot runs higher and design tolerances are tighter. Discount (Aldi, Dollar General, similar) optimizes for repeatability at scale, with prototype-driven construction and aggressive cost control across hundreds of locations per year.

An operator opening 50 off-price stores does not look like an operator opening 50 beauty stores does not look like an operator opening 200 discount stores. The construction process, the vendor mix, and the field team requirements all differ.

What This Concentration Reveals

When growth narrows to a few categories, it tells you something about the broader retail environment. Off-price wins when consumers trade down. Discount wins when value matters more than experience. Beauty has been an outlier of consistent growth driven by experiential differentiation that is hard to replicate online.

The categories not on the list are also worth noting. Department stores, specialty apparel, and electronics are not driving meaningful new store growth in 2026. The retail expansion happening this year is largely in formats that have proven they work in a constrained consumer environment, not formats that depend on consumer optimism.

What Operators Should Do

The implications depend on which category you operate in. Some practical guidance:

• If you are off-price, prioritize vendor relationships in the markets where big-box vacancies are concentrated. Lead times for fit-outs are still long even when the box is mostly there.
• If you are beauty, invest in design and brand-standards consistency. Your edge is execution quality, and that requires tighter pre-construction reviews and field-level brand audits.
• If you are discount, double down on prototype repeatability. The way you scale to 200+ openings per year is by removing decision-making from each individual project.
• If you are not in one of these categories, recognize that vendor capacity will be skewed toward the operators who are. Lock in commitments early.

Sources

Reporting referenced in this article:

• ICSC, 11 Retail Real Estate Predictions for 2026 - https://www.icsc.com/news-and-views/icsc-exchange/11-retail-real-estate-predictions-for-2026
• ICSC, Retail Outlook for 2026 - https://www.icsc.com/news-and-views/icsc-exchange/retailer-updates-development-investment-financing-news-gbt-concorde-simon-ggp-more